EXAMINING THE IMPACT OF COVID 19 PANDEMIC ON GLOBAL SECURITY AND INTERNATIONAL TRADE

EXAMINING THE IMPACT OF COVID 19 PANDEMIC ON GLOBAL SECURITY AND INTERNATIONAL TRADE

ABSTARCT

This study is on examining the impacts of COVID-19 Pandemic on Global Security and

International Trade. The COVID-19 Pandemic has affected Global security and International Trade. The international organizations responsible for Global security is unstable and unprepared for Pandemics, aging the gap of strategizing methods of confronting unseen pandemics. This research will identify the nexus between global security and international trade and ascertain the effects of COVID 19 pandemic on global security and international trade. In the course of the research, secondary data was adopted to attain to the objective of the study. The data acquired through adhered secondary sources were from reports, articles, online news websites, Journals and World Health Organisation’s website regarding the subject of the study. The transformationalists view of globalisation theory was adopted. The findings of this study revealed that, the COVID-19 Pandemic is not just a health crisis but a global threat to social, economic and security factors. The international trade has been impacted by the COVID-19 protocol measures in preventing the widespread of the Virus by safety implementations. Also, the gap which bridge international bodies from mitigating future Pandemics has been revealed relevant. The absence of international cooperation to address the crisis has aggravated the global economic situation, resulting in increased geopolitical tensions and mistrust among trading partners. This is essential on analysing how sensitive threats can be to the international system and how challenging restrictions can be for external relations at limiting conduct of correlation. This research recommends that, international bodies to insist on a renewed focus on long-term local leadership Create a Scaled-Up Version Peace Responsiveness.

CHAPTER ONE  INTRODUCTION

 

1.1 Background of the study

COVID 19 is “an infectious disease caused by a newly identified coronavirus known as severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-COV-2; formerly known as 2019-nCoV),” according to the World Health Organization. In December of this year, the first known case was detected in Wuhan, China. The disease has since spread around the world, resulting in a pandemic. The virus is thought to be natural and of animal origin as a result of spill over infection (Andersen KG et al., 2020). There are different views on where the first case (also known as patient zero) originated from, according to Berger (2020), and investigations into the pandemic’s origins are still underway. SARS-CoV-2, according to Duarte (2020), is considered to have emerged in  According to phylogenetic analysis, October or November 2019 is the best time to visit. Despite the fact that one Italian study suggests it was present as early as September 2019, according to Li X et al., (2020) (Vagnoni G, 2020). Evidence suggests that it is descended from a coronavirus that infects wild bats and transmits to people through a wildlife intermediary (Shield, 2020). “The likelihood that the Virus was unintentionally discharged from a laboratory is also being widely considered,” CNN expert Zachary B. Wolf said. In Wuhan, Hubei, China, the first human infections were detected. According to a review of the first 41 certified COVID 19 cases, the earliest date of symptom onset was December 31, 2019.In January 2020, patients will be reported in The Lancet (Wu Yc et al., 2020). According to official World Health Organization publications, the earliest presentation of symptoms occurred on December 8, 2019, according to the World Health Organization (2020). Humanto-human transmission has been established by the World Health Organization and Chinese authorities by January 20. These According to the Chinese Centre for Disease Control and Prevention, were mostly related to the Huanan Seafood wholesale market, which also sold live animals (Areddy, 2020). In May 2020, animal samples obtained from the seafood market tested negative for the virus, according to George Gao, director of the Chinese Disease Control. Indicating that the market was the source of information Although it was the site of an early super-spreading incident, it was not the site of the initial outbreak. The virus was detected in wastewater samples taken in Milan and Turin, Italy, on December 18, 2019. (kelland, 2020). Human-to-human transmission was thought to be the sole cause of COVID-19 disease, according to Heyman et al., (2020). The number of coronavirus cases in Hubei rapidly grew, reaching sixty by December 20th and at least 266 by December 31st (Jeanna B, 2020). Human transmission was noted in an article published in The Lancet on January 24th, which strongly advised personal protective equipment for health professionals and indicated that virus testing was important due to the virus’s “pandemic potential” (Horton R, 2020). On January 30, the World Health Organization designated the coronavirus an international public health emergency (The Globe and mail, 2020). “Coronavirus: number of COVID 19 deaths in Italy surpasses China as total reaches 3,405,” according to Sky News. Italy received its first confirmed cases on January 31, 2020, from two Chinese tourists. On March 19, 2020, Italy has overtaken China as the country with the highest number of deaths. By the 26th of March, the United States had surpassed China and Italy as the country with the most confirmed cases worldwide. The majority of COVID 19 cases in New York, according to coronavirus genome study, originated from European travellers, not from China or any other Asian country. Prior samples were retested, and on December 27, 2019, it was determined that a person in France had the virus (Deslandes A et al., 2020). Untreated wastewater has been found to contain the virus that causes severe acute respiratory syndrome (CoV-2).As early as November and December 2019, samples from Brazil and Italy will be available. However, the methods used in such sewage studies have not been optimised, and many have not been peer-reviewed. Furthermore, there is a risk of false positives due to contamination or if only one gene target is detected (Micheal-Kordatou T et al., 2020). According to a September 2020 review journal article, “the possibility that the COVID 19 infection had already spread to Europe at the end of last year is now indicated by abundant, even if partially circumstantial, evidence,” citing pneumonia case numbers and radiology in France and Italy in November and December  (Platto, 2020).When comparing the COVID 19 pandemic to past pandemics, the Black Death, often known as the Plague, should be mentioned. Between 1346 and 1353, the Black Death (also known as the Pestilence, Great Mortality, or Plague) devastated Afro-Eurasia (ABC/Reuters, 2008). It was the world’s largest pandemic, killing between 75 and 200 million people throughout Eurasia and North Africa, with a peak in Europe between 1347 and 1351.

(Gould & Pyle, 1896, p.617). In 2017, the World Health Organization declared a “plague.” Bubonic plague is caused by the bacteria Yersinia pestis, which can also cause septicaemia or pneumonia (Haensch et al., 2010). Plague is spread through respiratory droplets, just like COVID 19. However, rather than humans, rodents assisted the spread of the Black Death over the world. Rodents harbouring bacteria-infected fleas spread the sickness. Yersinia pestis partially blocks the intestines of fleas. The fleas regurgitate their meal in an attempt to clear their congested stomachs while consuming a person As a result of this attempt, Yersinia pestis is disseminated into the area around the flea’s bite wound.

Furthermore, the 1918 influenza pandemic, also known as the Spanish flu, was a particularly devastating influenza pandemic caused by the H1N1 influenza A virus, according to the World Health Organization (2013). Between February 1918 and April 1920, it infected 500 million individuals, roughly a third of the world’s population at the time. The death toll was estimated to be between 20 and 50 million individuals, ranging from 17 million to 100 million, making it one of the deadliest pandemics in human history. Many businesses in the entertainment and service industries have seen revenue declines, while those in the healthcare industry have seen profits soar. “Cohorts in utero during the pandemic demonstrated lower educational attainment, increased rates of physical impairment, lower income, lower socioeconomic position, and larger transfer payments received than previous birth cohorts,” according to Almond (2006,

p.2). The Spanish flu killed a fraction of the world’s population compared to the Black Death, which lasted much longer. More than 173 million COVID-19 instances had been discovered as of June 7, 2021.The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in more than 3.73 million deaths worldwide. As social distancing methods, schools, theatres, and places of religion were closed, public transportation was limited, and mass gatherings were prohibited. Despite debates over their efficiency, face masks grew popular in some places, such as Japan (Spinney 2018, pp.87-88). The impact of the Spanish flu on worldwide trade has received little attention. The lack of economic statistics for this period hinders study on the Spanish flu’s economic effects. Garrett, (2008), on the other hand, assesses the pandemic’s influence on US businesses using historical newspaper reports. The implications were massive. In October 1918, the Arkansas Gazette reported a 30 percent decline in food sales and a 40-70 percent drop in merchant and department store sales. Medical medicine mattress sales were also on the upswing at the time.

According to the commercial appeal, severe labour shortages were affecting industrial output.

Other recent studies have found evidence of significant and statistically significant economic effects of the Spanish flu since COVID-19. Barro, Ursua, and Weng, (2020), for example, between 1918 and 1921, the Spanish Flu lowered real GDP per capita in the average country by around 6%. (Correia, Verner, & Luck, 2020). Despite the fact that their findings were disputed, they discovered that the Spanish flu reduced manufacturing production in the United States by 18%. 2020 (Rinaldi & Lilley). Correia et al., (2020) also stress the importance of the link between government containment strategies and economic outcomes. In theory, containment efforts could have either beneficial or negative economic consequences. They are also difficult to distinguish from one another. While containment attempts do impede any economic activity that relies on social ties, many households would have avoided social interactions independent of government intervention to decrease their infection risk. Furthermore, government limits may help resolve coordination issues linked to virus containment, thus lowering the overall economic disruption caused by a pandemic in the long run. Correia et al. (2020) observed that towns in the United States that responded to the Spanish Flu pandemic with early and large interventions experienced stronger economic growth after the pandemic ceased than those that did not. Rinaldi et al., (2020) have questioned the accuracy of their methodology, and further research is needed in this area, as previously indicated. At the time, newspaper articles and stories painted a misleading picture of the economic implications. The Victorian industrial inspectors report depicts the effects of Spanish Flu on manufacturing activities for the year 1919 CIFS, (1920) productivity was claimed to be well maintained in 1919, with plenty of orders. However, it was also said that 1919 would have been a record year if a number of factors, particularly the Spanish flu, had not disrupted businesses and hindered progress. The influenza virus not only limited the number of employees for a while, but the restrictions enacted to prevent its spread also restricted buyer travel. Nonetheless, according to the report, retail merchants, particularly those selling highquality goods, had a very prosperous year. The majority of this increase is most likely due to the epidemic. Unemployment peaked in the early 1990s.The highest flu-related facility rate of the year occurred in the June quarter of 1919. Furthermore, during the first half of 1919, an increase in unemployment was fuelled by an increase in sickness-related unemployment, which the Commonwealth Bureau of Consensus and Statistics (1922) connected to the flu pandemic. Unemployment owing to a lack of work increased by 1% during the Spanish flu, contributing to the overall increase. This reflects, at least in part, the impact of government containment measures, which slowed economic activity significantly, as well as the pandemic’s influence on aggregate demand. On the other hand, the extent of the increase in unemployment was minor, falling within the typical range of quarterly fluctuations in the series. The Spanish flu outbreak demonstrated the destructive effects of a pandemic on trade and the economy. Having said that, and considering how different the Australian economy is now, the Spanish flu period and the strong economic growth that followed shows that a speedy pandemic recovery is possible if the public health components are not overburdened.

 

1.2 Statement of the problem

The COVID-19 Pandemic has affected Global security and International Trade. There is a weak correlation of the least developed countries and super powers in mitigating threats to the COVID-19 Pandemic globally. The international organizations responsible for Global security is unstable and unprepared for Pandemics, aging the gap of strategizing methods of confronting unseen pandemics.

The COVID-19 pandemic, which is affecting the external relation’s conducts of trade; import, export, production, demand and supply is wreaking havoc to global security, that has resulted to political unrest, crime, conflict and weakening the intensity of global security. At the very least, the most susceptible, vulnerable countries and cities will experience greater security threats. The COVID 19 pandemic is not the only witnessed pandemic in human history, there were more deadly pandemics that emerged, such as the Black Death, Spanish flue. These experienced pandemics have left the urge for countries and the international system to adhere to precaution of curbing pandemics in order to have methods of easing intensive repercussions. The intensity of COVID 19 impact and the international arena defines the unpreparedness of countries and international system on approaching future pandemics.

This COVID-19 pandemic underlines a crucial fact: we are interconnected in a contemporary world and therefore we must all safeguard one another. Because of the essence of the COVID19 pandemic which can emerge in any country and spread across the globe. This excludes no single country from this critical and urgent requirement for the international partnership for the welfare of all nations. The international community needs to have collective responses to COVID-19 pandemic on its repercussions on global security and how global trade can manoeuvre from stressed effects of the pandemic. There is a need to be joint action by leading international actors, international organizations to find appropriate measures to curbing global security and downturn of international trade. The COVID-19 pandemic has impacted international trade whereby there are border closures and social distancing in countries, to prevent the spread of infectious disease. The international system had no pre strategical method of tackling unseen pandemics.

1.3 Research objectives

This research will aim to achieve the following objectives:

1. To identify the nexus between global security and international trade.
2. To ascertain the effects of COVID 19 pandemic on global security and international trade.
3. To examine the methods used by international bodies to mitigate the challenges of

COVID 19 on global security and global trade.  

1.4 Research questions

This research will provide answers to the following research questions:

1. What nexus links global security with global trade?
2. What effects those COVID 19 pose on global security and international trade?
3. What are the methods imposed by international bodies to mitigating COVID 19 impacts on global security and global trade?

 

1.54 Significance of the study

This research is important because, it expresses the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic which can tackle unprecedented effects on global security and relations of global trade, the nexus between international trade and global security. Moreover, it will define how the COVID-19 pandemic has affected economic trends, weaker tourism inflows, reduced global demand and a downturn in the oil and commodities markets, affecting countries like Canada, India, and least developed countries in e.g., Africa.

This study also aims to provide early evidence of the unfolding COVID-19 pandemic impacts on global trade. The challenges of supply chains fragmenting, food stocks coming under strain and increased prices. This would lead to increased unemployment and food shortages and reflect on political unrest, crime, conflict, and weakening the intensity of global security. At the very least, the most susceptible, vulnerable countries and cities will experience greater security threats.

This research addresses the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on global security and examines its repercussions on global trade. It will relate to the unprecedented challenges triggered by the pandemic on global trade and threats to global security, which will provide apt data of COVID-19 pandemic in the international arena. Also, the nexus between global security and International trade, this will acknowledge how global trade flows with an impacted security globally along with proffering probable mechanisms to a post-pandemic era to the international community.

This study explores the importance of global security at every stance of international conducts, this is a recommendation for observing global security threat and the aftermath on external relations. The significance of this study is identifying the nexus between global security and international trade, this is essential on analysing how sensitive threats can be to the international system and how challenging restrictions can be for external relations at limiting conduct of correlation.

1.6 propositions

Proposition1: COVID-19 Pandemic has affected Global security.

Proposition2: There are threats to global security and International Trade caused by the COVID 19 pandemic.

1.7 Research methodology

In the course of the research, secondary data was adopted to attain to the objective of the study. The data acquired through adhered secondary sources were from reports, articles, online news websites, Journals and World Health Organisation’s website regarding the subject of the study. These sources were been adopted because they provide data to present research which  imply to the study and acknowledge responding data to the research questions.

 1.7.1Research design

The research design used is in analytic format.

 1.7.2 Method of data collection

The research adopted secondary sources of collective data, these sources of data were, obtained from reports, articles, online news website, Journals and the World Health Organisation’s website regarding the subject of the study.

 

1.8 Scope and Limitations of the study Scope of the study:

The scope of this study is the impact of the COVID 19 on global security, an analysis of international trade.

1.9 Definition of terms

International commerce refers to the transfer of products and services, including capital assets, from one country to another, according to the International Journal of Development and Emerging Economics (2014). Economics Concepts (2012) agreed with this concept, defining

it                   as                   trade                   across                   international                   borders.

 

Human security; pandemic; the word “pandemic” comes from the Greek words pan, which means “all,” and demos, which means “people.” The term is usually used to describe an infectious disease that spreads over an entire country or one or more continents at the same

time                                                       (Honigsbaum,                                                       2009).

 

The most relevant definition of international security, out of a plethora of definitions, is the one according to which the aforementioned concept “is the way international relationships are organised so that all states are protected against aggressions, threats of use of force, use of force, attacks on their national sovereignty, independence, or territorial integrity.” It also takes into account the growing interconnection of military, political, economic, social, technical, and

geographical                                                                                                                   elements.

 

Insecurity, according to Otto and Ukpere (2012), refers to the lack of peace, safety, and protection of human and physical resources, or simply the presence of a crisis. Economic,

political,                                     and                                     social                                     factors

COVID-19 is an infectious disease caused by a recently identified coronavirus known as severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-COV-2; formerly known as 2019-nCoV),

according                 to                 the                 World                 Health                 Organization.

 

 

According to Dijkzeul and Beigbeder (2003), the phrase “international organisation” refers to a wide range of formal organisations with both common features and unique characteristics that require elucidation. “Sometimes the word international organisation is used to include multinational enterprises, bilateral organisations, multilateral organisations, and international non-governmental organisations,” according to Dijkzeul & Beigbeder (2003:7). Occasionally, this word refers only to United Nations organisations. “The term international organisation or

global       levels       is       most       usually       used”       (Brechin,       et       al.,       2013:17).

 

1.91 Organisation of the study

This research is classified into (5) chapters, which each section has its revealing analysis and identification. Chapter (1) as the introductory section of the research, this section includes the prevailing impact of COVID-19 pandemic and repercussions on global security which explains what the research will relate to. This chapter also entails the background of the study, which provides the context of the COVID-19 and other witnessed pandemics, which differ with COVID-19. The third section of this chapter is the statement of the problem, the research objective that will be providing answers to the research questions of; How is global security in close nexus with global trade? What effects those COVID 19 pose on global security and international trade? What are the methods imposed by international bodies to mitigating COVID 19 impacts on global security and global trade? What are the probable solution to a post-pandemic era?

The significance of this study is expressing the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic which can tackle unprecedented effects on global security and relations of global trade, the nexus between international trade and global security. Moreover, it will define how the COVID-19 pandemic has affected economic trends, weaker tourism inflows, reduced global demand and a downturn in the oil and commodities markets, affecting countries like the United States of America and least developed countries in e.g., Africa.

The theoretical framework will adapt to Globalisation theory of the Transformationalists view for the research. At the end of this section, there will be an understanding of the impact of COVID-19 Pandemic on international trade, ascertain the effects of restrictions on international trade and global security of the COVID-19 pandemic, identify the nexus between international trade and global security, find out the aftermath of COVID-19 pandemic on international trade and global security as well acknowledge theories regarding this study. The research methodology will provide the sort of method adopted by the researcher in collecting relevant and related information about COVID-19 pandemic impact on global security, an analysis of global trade. The information/data collection is used by the researcher in making analysis, evaluation and conclusion. Scope and limitations of the study entails the area of study and time frame of the research and factors which affects the research.  

EXAMINING THE IMPACT OF COVID 19 PANDEMIC ON GLOBAL SECURITY AND INTERNATIONAL TRADE

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