QUANTIFICATION OF UNCERTAINTY AND RISKS FOR DEVELOPING MARGINAL FIELDS IN THE NIGER DELTA

QUANTIFICATION OF UNCERTAINTY AND RISKS FOR DEVELOPING MARGINAL FIELDS IN THE NIGER DELTA

Abstract:
The Niger Delta region in Nigeria is known for its vast reserves of hydrocarbon resources. However, the development of marginal fields in this region presents unique challenges due to inherent uncertainties and risks associated with the complex geology, environmental concerns, and socio-political factors. This study aims to quantify the uncertainty and risks involved in developing marginal fields in the Niger Delta, providing valuable insights for decision-making and risk mitigation strategies.

The research utilizes a multidisciplinary approach, integrating geological, engineering, and socio-economic data to assess the uncertainties and risks at various stages of marginal field development. Geological uncertainties, such as reservoir quality, distribution, and connectivity, are evaluated using advanced reservoir characterization techniques, including seismic data interpretation, well log analysis, and reservoir simulation.

Engineering uncertainties related to reservoir performance, well productivity, and field recovery factors are assessed using reservoir engineering tools and methodologies. These include decline curve analysis, production forecasting, and uncertainty analysis using Monte Carlo simulations. Socio-economic factors, such as local community engagement, regulatory compliance, and security risks, are also considered to provide a comprehensive risk assessment.

The study incorporates probabilistic modeling techniques to quantify the uncertainties and risks associated with marginal field development. Monte Carlo simulations are employed to generate multiple realizations of key parameters, enabling the assessment of different development scenarios and their associated risks. Sensitivity analysis is conducted to identify the most critical parameters influencing project outcomes and to prioritize risk mitigation strategies.

The findings of this research will enable stakeholders, including oil and gas companies, government agencies, and investors, to make informed decisions regarding marginal field development in the Niger Delta. By quantifying uncertainties and risks, this study will facilitate the optimization of field development plans, allocation of resources, and implementation of risk management strategies. Ultimately, it aims to enhance the success rate of marginal field development projects, maximize hydrocarbon recovery, and contribute to the sustainable development of the Niger Delta region.

Keywords: Niger Delta, marginal fields, uncertainty quantification, risk assessment, reservoir characterization, Monte Carlo simulation, sensitivity analysis, decision-making, risk mitigation, sustainable development.

QUANTIFICATION OF UNCERTAINTY AND RISKS FOR DEVELOPING MARGINAL FIELDS IN THE NIGER DELTA, GET MORE OIL AND GAS/PETROLEUM ENGINEERING PROJECT TOPICS AND MATERIALS

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